D850 Replacement or end of the DSLR line for Nikon?: Nikon FX SLR (DF, D1-D5, D600-D850) Talk Forum: Digital Photography Review (2024)

1

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

7

TheNikonKnight wrote:

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

Considering the D780 came out just last year, I'd say you're not up to date on news...

7

TheNikonKnight wrote:

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

Is a rumor the same thing as speculation? I don’t think so. I have not heard any rumors that the D850 is the end of the line. I have heard some people speculate that the D850 might be the end of the line. But that is shear speculation and I discount it.

4

Yea, Nikon said they just couldn't make the D850 any better. So the R&D team just packed their bags and went home.

Nah, Nikon is still releasing new FX lenses. Some of them are very expensive telephotos that will require years of sales to recoup the development costs.

Nikon just released the D6 and the D780 in 2020. A replacement for the D850 would be the next logical upgrade.

Nikon blew out a lot of D850 with their big $500 rebate sale in November/December. After the sale you couldn't find a D850 in any of the major retailers, suggesting the US stock was depleted. The sale was probably done to reduce stock before releasing a replacement. The new D880, or whatever it will be called, will reduce the sale price of the D850 and make them harder to sell.

dave gaines wrote:

Yea, Nikon said they just couldn't make the D850 any better. So the R&D team just packed their bags and went home.

Nah, Nikon is still releasing new FX lenses. Some of them are very expensive telephotos that will require years of sales to recoup the development costs.

Nikon just released the D6 and the D780 in 2020. A replacement for the D850 would be the next logical upgrade.

Nikon blew out a lot of D850 with their big $500 rebate sale in November/December. After the sale you couldn't find a D850 in any of the major retailers, suggesting the US stock was depleted. The sale was probably done to reduce stock before releasing a replacement. The new D880, or whatever it will be called, will reduce the sale price of the D850 and make them harder to sell.

Yep. I believe Nikon learned their lesson with having too much stock of the previous model hurting sales of the new model when they released the D780 with too many D750s left in the supply chain.

There is some rumor that the D850 will have one last update.

I kinda wish they would just come out with a mirrorless D500 update though. Oh well.

2

Bodkins Best Photography wrote:

TheNikonKnight wrote:

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

Considering the D780 came out just last year, I'd say you're not up to date on news...

The Nikon D780 is a replacement for the D750 not the D850. Thanks for playing though.

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TheNikonKnight wrote:

conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon

You asked about the end of the Nikon DSLRs. Not simply no more 800 series cameras.

2

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

2

The big question to Nikon is; will you release the D850 replacement first -OR- the TOTL Mirrorless camera to challenge the Canon R5 and Sony A1.

I'm pretty happy with my D850; I'm more curious about the evolution of a Mirrorless alternative so I could have the best of both worlds.

6

TheNikonKnight wrote:

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

Read this related post, especially the fifth paragraph.

https://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/64780945

Obviously, market forces will have the ultimate effect, but Nikon’s leadership appears willing to continue to serve the F-mount market.

There has to be a demand, to support the suppliers/manufacturers of that demand. My wife and I have provided two willing homes, for new D850 cameras, in 2018, which is two data points, that Nikon could use to assess DSLR demand. I bought two new D5 cameras, in 2018 and 2019, to add two more data points, for Nikon’s assessment of the USA market demand. We also bought two new D500 cameras, in 2017. All of these cameras were acquired from official Nikon USA dealers.

We have done our part, to “tell” Nikon that the DSLR demand is still strong. We may not be able to afford to upgrade, with each generation. Usually, we do not, but between a storm ruining some of my wife’s cameras, and my shifting away from Canon for birds and wildlife, we did buy a considerable number of Nikon bodies, in fiscal years 2017 to 2019.

If the question is whether to buy a D850, or wait for a potential successor, well, I would recommend buying the camera one needs, now, rather than miss opportunities, while waiting for that which my never be realized. If something happened to all of our cameras, today, I would try to replace them, as soon as possible, with current models, rather than wait.

Rexgig0 wrote:

If the question is whether to buy a D850, or wait for a potential successor, well, I would recommend buying the camera one needs, now, rather than miss opportunities, while waiting for that which my never be realized. If something happened to all of our cameras, today, I would try to replace them, as soon as possible, with current models, rather than wait.

Just found my Nikon's receipt - didn't realize that I have had my D850 for nearly 3 years. Bought in March 2018. As an amateur I normally buy a new camera every 5 years or so - I will be ready for the Nikon D8xx DSLR iteration in the next 18 months

2

Daniel Bliss wrote:

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

Yes, with the reported weak financial position of Nikon, one has to wonder how much longer they can continue to straddle two systems before committing fully to mirrorless.

1

TheNikonKnight wrote:

I have heard rumors of a Nikon D850 replacement as well as other conflicting rumors that the D850 could be the end of the DSLR line for Nikon.

Does anyone have any validity to either of these rumors or could shed any light either way on this subject?

No. If they did they would be under an NDA and not say anything or someone would have violated that.

Bottom line, if you like the D850 it's plenty of camera to last many years and for many of us a lifetime; if there's something you want that's a dealbreaker and the D850 doesn't have it, then wait or buy something else.

2

JasonTheBirder wrote:

I kinda wish they would just come out with a mirrorless D500 update though. Oh well.

I would much rather have a DSLR update of the D500. At this point I don't think a mirrorless camera can match what the D500 does in terms of PDAF, working with F-mount lenses, and then there's that whole viewfinder thing (I would find an EVF a dealbreaker right now).

ARClark wrote:

Daniel Bliss wrote:

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

Yes, with the reported weak financial position of Nikon,

How is Nikon's financial position weak?

one has to wonder how much longer they can continue to straddle two systems before committing fully to mirrorless.

There doing better than Canon in that regard.

photonut2008 wrote:

ARClark wrote:

Daniel Bliss wrote:

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

Yes, with the reported weak financial position of Nikon,

How is Nikon's financial position weak?

Lots of discussion here including links to various reports. Here’s a link to a fairly recent representative article. https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/

one has to wonder how much longer they can continue to straddle two systems before committing fully to mirrorless.

There doing better than Canon in that regard.

They are on the surface.

-- hide signature --

DPR, where gear is king and photography merely a jester

4

ARClark wrote:

photonut2008 wrote:

ARClark wrote:

Daniel Bliss wrote:

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

Yes, with the reported weak financial position of Nikon,

How is Nikon's financial position weak?

Lots of discussion here including links to various reports. Here’s a link to a fairly recent representative article. https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/

Quantity does equal quality, and that goes double for pseudo-analysis. 100% of Sony's sales are mirrorless cameras, but what percentage of Nikon's sales were mirrorless in 2019? No mention in that article about the D850, D780, D7500, or how many D750 cameras Nikon sold in 2019. No mention in that article about Nikon's substantial cash reserves.

Here's what Thom Hogan has to say about Nikon's near future, "Here's a company who last time I looked had billions in cash and the ability to borrow more who many people are claiming 'doesn't have the resources to do the necessary R&D.' Actually, Nikon's R&D expenditures for imaging are right up there with Canon and Sony, and both those companies are spending some of their R&D money on video products." Emphasis added by me as this is a response to your flawed argument.

https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/paranoia-followup.html

one has to wonder how much longer they can continue to straddle two systems before committing fully to mirrorless.

There doing better than Canon in that regard.

They are on the surface.

Canon's turned their back on their user base, leaving Canon DSLR users extremely hesitant to buy a DSLR from them because they've clearly signaled that it's a dead-end.

photonut2008 wrote:

ARClark wrote:

photonut2008 wrote:

ARClark wrote:

Daniel Bliss wrote:

You know as much as I do about what a body like this would actually be--nothing. All I or anyone else here can likely do for now is point out rumors and logical ideas for a product.

You can go and check out hashtag D880 at nikonrumors.com; and references to such things by the likes of all-round camera tech advice guy and educator Thom Hogan (bythom.com). But that is what these sources have suggested, evidence that Nikon has at least tire-kicked the idea of a new D8xx body.

What it would entail, no-one really has any idea.

What it should entail -- presumably the Z7II logic board and sensor, with all that implies, including on-sensor phase-detect autofocus (PDAF), higher bandwidth for video, USB-C support, and a slight further boost to JPEG processing performance. (Sign me up if that happens)

What the D780 does include -- the Z6 logic board and sensor, with comparable JPEG progressing, on-sensor PDAF, video bandwidth, USB-C etc. etc,. And of course the Z6 was the closest equivalent mirrorless camera when the D780 came out.

But if Nikon doesn't add at least one or two AF-P lenses in F-mount the benefits of on-sensor PDAF will be slightly limited by the noisy AF motors in F-mount lenses. Benefits they still are of course but not as much as a serious videographer would want if they were AF-dependent. Right now there are only six PDAF F-mount lenses -- the 10-20mm DX, VR and non-VR versions of the 70-300 DX zoom, VR and non-VR versions of the 18-55 DX zoom, and the FX 70-300 zoom. These are by far the quietest autofocusing F-mount lenses and among the fastest focusing. The obvious gap in this lineup is the lack of a standard or a wide-angle AF-P zoom in FX.

And it also goes almost without saying that it's a bit weird that Nikon hasn't yet introduced mirrorless versions of the FX 70-300 zoom, or the 10-20 DX. In fact there are a number of situations in which a Nikon customer currently has to mix-and-match components instead of just being able to buy an outfit based around a single mount and format. Which goes to show that Nikon also has other fish to fry so to speak and that's believed by many to point to a real difficulty for Nikon in producing further F mount products as it will be tough to fill every single product gap at the same time.

Yes, with the reported weak financial position of Nikon,

How is Nikon's financial position weak?

Lots of discussion here including links to various reports. Here’s a link to a fairly recent representative article. https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/

Quantity does equal quality, and that goes double for pseudo-analysis. 100% of Sony's sales are mirrorless cameras, but what percentage of Nikon's sales were mirrorless in 2019? No mention in that article about the D850, D780, D7500, or how many D750 cameras Nikon sold in 2019. No mention in that article about Nikon's substantial cash reserves.

Here's what Thom Hogan has to say about Nikon's near future, "Here's a company who last time I looked had billions in cash and the ability to borrow more who many people are claiming 'doesn't have the resources to do the necessary R&D.' Actually, Nikon's R&D expenditures for imaging are right up there with Canon and Sony, and both those companies are spending some of their R&D money on video products." Emphasis added by me as this is a response to your flawed argument.

https://www.zsystemuser.com/nikon-z-system-news-and/paranoia-followup.html

one has to wonder how much longer they can continue to straddle two systems before committing fully to mirrorless.

There doing better than Canon in that regard.

They are on the surface.

Canon's turned their back on their user base, leaving Canon DSLR users extremely hesitant to buy a DSLR from them because they've clearly signaled that it's a dead-end.

Time will tell. I’m not losing any sleep over it, just musing. In the mean time, I continue to enjoy shooting my D850s daily.

3

Nikon stated on several occasions that they will keep the DSLR line going for now, but the emphasis would (obviously) lie wit the Z-line products.

I always account this to nervous chatter of the internet-insecured.

It would not make a lot of sense shutting down a perfectly viable line of products which you've just launched two bodies for, now would it?