Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (2024)

Both of Earth’s polar regions hadlow sea ice extent for the month of June, with Antarctic sea ice setting a record low. Arctic sea ice extent stands at tenthlowest. Near-record low ice extentcharacterizedthe Barents and Hudson Bay areas, and there are several low-concentration regions in the Beaufort Sea, an area that usually has a dense ice pack at this time of year.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent forJune 2022 was10.86 million square kilometers (4.19 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Average Arctic sea ice extent for June 2022 was10.86million square kilometers (4.19million square miles), rankingtenthlowest in the satellite record (Figure 1). The 2022 June extent was900,000square kilometers (347,000 square miles)below the 1981 to 2010 average. Total ice loss for June was 2.50 million square kilometers (965,000 square miles). The Barents Sea is nearly ice free, with the ice edge far north of its usual location for this time of year. Hudson Bay is also losing ice unusually early. Extent in the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Kara Seasis slightly belowaverage. The most notable feature along the Russian coast is the opening of a large polynya in the Laptev Sea near the New Siberian Islands. Baffin Bay has near average ice extent, and in early June the North Water Polynya opened. Some extensive low-ice-concentration regions are forming over the central Arctic Ocean, perhaps portending large polynyas in the later part of the summer.

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of July 4, 2022, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2022 is shown in blue, 2021 in green, 2020 in orange, 2019 in brown, 2018 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Figure 2b. The left plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, forJune2022. Yellows and reds indicate higher than average temperatures; blues and purples indicate lower than average temperatures.The plot on the right shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars forJune 2022. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory
High-resolution image

Figure 2c. These Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from the NASA Terra satellite show the Beaufort Sea and surrounding areas on June 20 (top) and June 26 (bottom). Blue tint over the sea ice areas not covered by clouds indicates development of melt ponds on the ice. The inset is a closeup of the area in the small red box on the June 26 image, depicting melt ponds on sea ice floes.

Credit: NASA WorldView
High-resolution image

Juneair temperatures over the Arctic as assessed at the 925 hPa level (approximately 2,500 feet above the surface) were close to the long-term average. Most of the high-latitude Arctic Ocean was within a degree of the 1981 to 2010 average temperature. Temperatures in Scandinavia, Svalbard, and northern European Russia were generally 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average (Figure 2b). The Hudson Bay region is also warmwith temperatures 4 to 5 degrees Celsius (7 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. By contrast, temperatures over central Greenland, the northern Yukon and North Slope, and easternmost Siberia are all 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.

The June sea level pressure pattern was characterized by strong high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and a large low pressure area near Iceland (Figure 2b). This pattern is consistent with the warmth over Scandinavia and relatively cool conditions over Baffin Bay. A broad area of low pressure also dominates northwestern Eurasia. The strong high pressure over the Beaufort Sea, and generally high pressures over much of the Arctic Ocean, is consistent with a prevalence of clear skies. Since June is the month of the solstice, with the highest sun elevation, the clear skieslet more solar energy reach the ice surface, leading to strong surface melting. Between June 20and June 26, a large area of the Beaufort Sea started to show the development of melt ponds (Figure 2c).

June 2022 compared to previous years

Figure 3. MonthlyJune ice extent for 1979 to 2022 shows a decline of3.9 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

The downward linear trend in June sea ice extent over the 44-year satellite record is45,700square kilometers (17,600 square miles) per year, or3.9percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979,June haslost1.97 million square kilometers (761,000 square miles) of sea ice. This is equivalent to about three times the size of Texas.

Antarctic sea ice extent in June

Figure 4. Antarcticsea ice extent for May 2022 was 12.1 million square kilometers (4.67 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Sea ice surrounding the Antarctic continent dipped to near-record low extent in late May and remained close to a record low through mid-month, setting a new record low starting on June 20. Sea ice growth was slower than average, particularly for the Bellingshausen and eastern Weddell seas (Figure 4). The Ross Sea and the sector north of Wilkes Land had near-average extent for the month. Antarctica’s air temperatures for the month at the 925 mb level were above average across nearly the entire continent and surrounding ocean. Over the Weddell Sea, air temperatures were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average, and over coastal areas of Wilkes Land, up to 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. Slightly below average temperatures prevailed over the eastern Ross Sea and western Amundsen Sea. Sea level pressure was low over the Bellingshausen Sea and high over the western Ross Sea. While wind directions based on the air pressure patterns are consistent with the temperaturedifferences (cool winds come off the continent, warmer winds come from the north), in general they are not consistent with the sea ice pattern. Despite cool continental air flowing over the Amundsen Sea, sea ice extent is still low there; warm conditions along the Wilkes coast did not act to reduce June ice extent in that area.

“Atlantification” of the Barents Sea

Figure 5. The left map depicts the surface air temperature trend for the Barents Sea from 1981 to 2020. The map on the right depicts sea surface temperature for the same region. Data for surface air temperature are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA-5); data for the sea surface temperature are from European Space Agency sources.

Credit: Adapted from Isaksen et al. 2022
High-resolution image

The Barents Sea has had persistently low winter sea ice extent for many years now. As a result of the more open ocean conditions, the trend in air temperature in the region is extreme: up to ten times the global trend in warming (Figure 5). This was highlighted in a recent study by Isaksen and others. Sea ice acts as a lid in autumn and winter, separating the fairly warm open ocean, which is just above freezing, from the cold Arctic air. Removing the ice results in a large transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and therefore atmospheric warming.

The deeper issue is why the sea ice in the northern Barents Sea is declining, and it may be related to the “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean. Warm and salty Atlantic water enters the Arctic Ocean through the Barents Sea and eastern Fram Strait, and dives beneath the cold, relatively fresh and less dense surface layer of the Arctic Ocean. Previous research has shown that the fresh surface layer is thinning as a result of less summer sea ice, allowing heat from the Atlantic water to reach the surface, preventing winter sea ice from forming in the Barents Sea region. In short, some parts of the Barents Sea have started to resemble the Atlantic.

Strong La Niña in the Pacific

Figure 6.This image showssea surface temperature as a difference from average (relative to 1981 to 2010) in the Western Hemisphere for June 28, 2022. The blueish area in the equatorial Pacific depicts the strong La Niña conditions. Warm colors indicate warm sea surface conditions in the northern Pacific.

Credit: nullschool.net
High-resolution image

Oscillations in sea surface temperaturein the equatorial Pacific, characterized by El Niño and La Niña conditions, can have widespread influences on atmospheric circulation patterns. Beginning around July 2020, a moderate La Niña pattern developed, characterized by a large pool of relatively cool water in the eastern tropical Pacific. This event has persisted with a brief hiatus in the summer of 2021. It is forecast to last through the end of the year, with some variations, generally weakening as the year progresses. Along with the La Niña pattern, a pool of unusually warm water has formed in the northern Pacific.

Researchers Jeong and others present evidence that La Niña events favor extensive Arctic sea ice retreat just north of the Pacific, including the East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, and western Beaufort Sea, in part as a result of warm ocean conditions in the northern Pacific, as we are seeing this year. However, the air pressure pattern in June isunlike past La Niña events that led to rapid ice loss like in the 2012 summer, which set a satellite-era record low September sea ice minimum. That year had warm air and high pressure extending over Greenland, and a strong low pressure over the Siberian and Pacific Arctic that drove ice out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. At this time, sea ice loss in the Pacific side of the Arctic is moderate, but the large area of low sea ice concentration maygrow rapidly in July and August.

Further reading and references

Jeong, H., H. S. Park, M. F. Stuecker, and S. W. Yeh. 2022. Record low Arctic sea ice extent in 2012 linked to two‐year La Niña‐driven sea surface temperature pattern.Geophysical Research Letters, p.e2022GL098385. doi:10.1029/2022GL098385

Isaksen, K., Ø.Nordli, B. Ivanov,et al.2022.Exceptional warming over the Barents area.Scientific Reports12,9371. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-13568-5

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (2024)

FAQs

What is happening to the Arctic sea ice? ›

Polar ice caps are melting as global warming causes climate change. We lose Arctic sea ice at a rate of almost 13% per decade, and over the past 30 years, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95%.

How much ice is left in the Arctic 2022? ›

1. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/EUMETSAT. In January 2022, Antarctic sea ice extent reached 4.4 million km2 on average, 1.0 million km2 (19%) below the 1991-2020 average for January. This value ranks 4th lowest in this 43-year satellite record.

What is the current extent of Arctic sea ice? ›

Arctic sea ice has likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.88 million square kilometers (5.75 million square miles) on February 25, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder.

Is Antarctic sea ice increasing? ›

From the start of satellite observations in 1979 to 2014, total Antarctic sea ice increased by about 1 percent per decade. Whether the increase was a sign of meaningful change is uncertain because ice extents vary considerably from year to year around Antarctica.

Is Arctic sea ice increasing or decreasing? ›

Sea ice in the Arctic has decreased dramatically since the late 1970s, particularly in summer and autumn. Since the satellite record began in 1978, the yearly minimum Arctic sea ice extent (which occurs in September) has decreased by about 40% [Figure 5].

What is causing the Arctic sea ice to melt? ›

Human activities are at the root of this phenomenon. Specifically, since the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions have raised temperatures, even higher in the poles, and as a result, glaciers are rapidly melting, calving off into the sea and retreating on land.

When was the last time the Arctic was ice free? ›

Summary: Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.

What happens if the Arctic melts? ›

If all the ice covering Antarctica , Greenland, and in mountain glaciers around the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet). The ocean would cover all the coastal cities. And land area would shrink significantly. But many cities, such as Denver, would survive.

How thick is Arctic ice? ›

Currently, 28% of Arctic basin sea ice is multi-year ice, thicker than seasonal ice: up to 3–4 m (9.8–13.1 ft) thick over large areas, with ridges up to 20 m (65.6 ft) thick.

Where is ice increasing? ›

The Arctic regularly reaches ever smaller extents of end-of-summer minimum extents of sea ice. This changing sea ice extent is cited by the IPCC as an indicator of a warming world. However, sea ice extent is growing in Antarctica [1]. In fact, it's recently broken a record for maximum extent.

How much ice is left in the world? ›

Summary
Ice massTotal ice volume% Global land surface
WAIS & APIS4.5 m SLE
Greenland7.36 m SLE1.2%
Global glaciers and ice caps*0.43 m SLE (113,915 to 191,879 Gt)0.5%
Total12.5%
1 more row
6 days ago

What has happened to Arctic sea ice in the last 20 years? ›

September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 13% per decade, compared to its average extent during the period of 1981 to 2010. This graph shows the size of the Arctic sea ice each September since satellite observations started in 1979.

Is the Antarctic getting colder? ›

UAH satellite data of temperatures of the lower troposphere since 1979 shows a slight warming over the Antarctic continent (0.4 degrees C, 1979 to 2021), and a very slight cooling over the Southern ocean to the 60th latitude.

How can we stop the Arctic ice from melting? ›

– Electric Power
  1. reduce the consumption of natural resources,
  2. reduce the emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere, and.
  3. preserve the purity of water and forests.

Is Antarctic ice growing or shrinking? ›

According to climate models, rising global temperatures should cause sea ice in both regions to shrink. But observations show that ice extent in the Arctic has shrunk faster than models predicted, and in the Antarctic it has been growing slightly.

Why is Arctic ice declining? ›

Arctic sea ice decline has occurred in recent decades and is an effect of climate change; sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has melted more than it refreezes in the winter. Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas forcing is responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice.

Is the Arctic getting better? ›

The Arctic continues to warm more than twice as fast as the rest of the globe. The snow-free period across the Eurasian Arctic during summer 2020 was the longest since at least 1990. June 2021 snow cover in Arctic North America was below the long-term average for the 15th consecutive year.

Does the Arctic have more ice this year? ›

Arctic sea ice extent 2021 at the end of December is the highest in recent years and the 2nd highest in 18 years according to the US Snow and Ice Data Center. A cool summer and autumn, particularly in the western Arctic Ocean, led to a rapid increase in sea ice this year.

How long until the ice caps melt? ›

But an Earth completely free of ice isn't going to happen within our lifetimes, or likely even within the next few thousand years. Most projections put sea-level rise at around a foot by 2100 — far less than what's possible.

What happens if the Earth's temperature rises 1 degree? ›

Over the last century, our Earth has already witnessed a vertiginous increase in temperature: 1°C between the pre-industrial era and today. If this progressive rise goes on to reach 2°C, the consequences will, like a cluster bomb, spray in many directions.

What would happen if all ice melted? ›

There is still some uncertainty about the full volume of glaciers and ice caps on Earth, but if all of them were to melt, global sea level would rise approximately 70 meters (approximately 230 feet), flooding every coastal city on the planet.

Are we still in an ice age? ›

Today Earth is in an interglacial period, a relatively warmer period of the current ice age, but in recent decades Earth's climate has been warming. While past shifts took hundreds or thousands of years, today people may be able to see changes in their lifetimes.

What is going to happen by 2040 in the Arctic? ›

The Arctic is now expected to be ice-free by 2040

Scientists now believe that the summer of 2040 will see the end of the frozen north pole after a rapid shrinking of the ice coverage in recent years, according to a report from the Arctic Council.

What is the warmest the earth has ever been? ›

The current official highest registered air temperature on Earth is 56.7 °C (134.1 °F), recorded on 10 July 1913 at Furnace Creek Ranch, in Death Valley in the United States.

Will there be another ice age? ›

There have been five big ice ages in Earth's 4.5-billion-year lifespan and scientists say we're due for another one. The next ice age may not occur for another 100,000 years.

Will the Earth melt few years from now? ›

Four billion years from now, the increase in Earth's surface temperature will cause a runaway greenhouse effect, creating conditions more extreme than present-day Venus and heating Earth's surface enough to melt it.

What the world would look like if all the ice melted? ›

The entire Atlantic seaboard would vanish, along with Florida and the Gulf Coast. In California, San Francisco's hills would become a cluster of islands and the Central Valley a giant bay. The Gulf of California would stretch north past the latitude of San Diego—not that there'd be a San Diego.

Can you drink melted sea ice? ›

As ice ages, the brine eventually drains through the ice, and by the time it becomes multiyear ice, nearly all of the brine is gone. Most multiyear ice is fresh enough that someone could drink its melted water.

What is the thickest ice in the world? ›

The thickest ice in the world forms part of the Antarctic Ice Sheet where it sits over a region known as the Astrolabe Subglacial Basin to the south of the Adélie Coast. Here, the ice sheet has been measured to be 4,897 metres (16,066 feet) thick.

How old is the oldest ice in the Arctic? ›

To get that kind of neatly layered ice sample, scientists need to drill straight down through the thick Antarctic ice sheet. So far, the oldest ice collected that way goes back 800,000 years. Now, several groups from around the world want to drill down to ice that's even older, more than 1.5 million years old.

Who owns the Antarctic? ›

People from all over the world undertake research in Antarctica, but Antarctica is not owned by any one nation. Antarctica is governed internationally through the Antarctic Treaty system.

Is there land under Antarctica? ›

There are few frontiers in the world that can still be said to be unexplored. One of these terra incognita is the land beneath Antarctica's ice sheets. Buried under kilometres of ice is a fascinating realm of canyons, waterways and lakes, which is only now being mapped in detail.

Is Antarctica melting or growing? ›

While a few areas of the frozen continent's gigantic ice sheet have been growing, overall Antarctica is losing ice, with glaciers in West Antarctica undergoing the most rapid melting. Ice shelves fringing the Antarctic land mass, where land ice meets the ocean, are also shrinking.

Where is the most ice on Earth? ›

It averages 2,160 meters thick, making Antarctica the highest continent. This ice is 90 percent of all the world's ice and 70 percent of all the world's fresh water.

What parts of the world are losing ice? ›

This is important because the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica store about two-thirds of all the fresh water on Earth. They are losing ice due to the ongoing warming of Earth's surface and ocean.

Is there land under the ice in the Arctic? ›

There's no land at the North Pole

Instead it's all ice that's floating on top of the Arctic Ocean. Over the past four decades, scientists have seen a steep decline in both the amount and thickness of Arctic sea ice during the summer and winter months.

How does sea ice affect global climate? ›

Changes in the amount of sea ice can disrupt normal ocean circulation, thereby leading to changes in global climate. Even a small increase in temperature can lead to greater warming over time, making the polar regions the most sensitive areas to climate change on Earth.

What's the warmest Antarctica has ever been? ›

The recent extraordinary heatwave in Antarctica appears to have set a new World Record for the largest temperature excess above normal (+38.5 °C / +69.3 °F) ever measured at an established weather station. It "appears to have set a new World Record for the largest temperature excess above normal ...

What will happen to Antarctica in the next 50 years? ›

These glaciers will add to sea-level rise if they melt. The temperature of Antarctica as a whole is predicted to rise by a small amount over the next 50 years. Any increase in the rate of ice melting is expected to be at least partly offset by increased snowfall as a result of the warming.

Can polar ice Be Saved? ›

Scientist says giant walls and cooling tunnels may be the best ways to save polar ice. For years, scientists have been exploring ways to save the vast sheets of ice covering Greenland and Antarctica, which as the climate warms are melting and falling into the ocean.

Can we save Arctic? ›

Reducing your carbon emissions and dependence on fossil fuels can help save the Arctic. Discover practical ways you can make a difference, from joining our campaigns to shopping greener at the supermarket and making your home energy efficient.

How much will the sea level rise in 2050? ›

By 2050, the average rise will be 4 to 8 inches along the Pacific, 10 to 14 inches along the Atlantic, and 14 to 18 inches along the Gulf.

How much ice is left in the Arctic 2021? ›

Although higher, the 2021 minimum sea ice extent was around 4.724 million square kilometers, roughly 1.6 million square kilometers lower than the long-term mean. A northern hemisphere's strong negative height anomaly in the geopotential in late summer kept the western Arctic cooler and reduced the ice from melting.

When was the last time the Arctic was ice free? ›

Summary: Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.

Is the Arctic ocean frozen over? ›

Most of the Arctic Ocean is covered by ice throughout the year—although that is starting to change as temperatures climb. Pale and stark on the surface, the Arctic Ocean is home to a stunning array of life.

What are the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss? ›

The continued loss of Arctic sea ice will include further Arctic warming, erosion of Arctic coastlines, and a disturbance of global weather patterns. Sea ice loss will also open up the Arctic to increased human activity, further disturbing Arctic communities and ecosystems.

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